|
Halo 3 May Cause GTA IV Delay |
Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter is on a roll. Not only did he weigh in
on Activision's recent performance, but he's also provided some very
interesting comments about Take-Two in advance of the company's second
quarter fiscal report on June 11.
He's maintaining a "Sell" rating on the stock and believes that a
successful turnaround at the company will take more than a year to
complete. "We believe that new management understands what is required
to turn the company's fortunes around, and believe that they will take
prudent steps to return the company to profitability," he said.
"However, we believe that there are significant structural changes
required in order to control costs, and believe that these changes will
take more than a year to complete. On the revenue side, new management
is saddled with the decisions made by the prior management for at least
another year, and we do not expect new games such as The Bigs, All-Pro Football, Fantastic Four, or The Darkness to be wildly profitable."
He added, "We also think that the new management will take steps to cut
costs as soon as practicable, resulting in studio closures and
charge-offs for games in development."
The real interesting part of Pachter's note, however, is that a delay to the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto IV
could be considered. He believes Take-Two may push the game out a few
weeks for both financial reasons and to get further away from the
(likely) mega blockbuster Halo 3. As it stands currently, Halo 3 is launching on September 25 and GTA IV is expected on October 16.
"We believe that it is possible that the company will choose to 'throw in the towel' on FY:07 by shifting the release date for Grand Theft Auto IV
by a few weeks, increasing the losses incurred this year and improving
the company's prospects for FY:08," Pachter explained. "We believe that
a two-week delay would provide a reasonable gap between the launch of Halo 3 and the launch of GTA IV, and would actually help sales of both games. In addition, a delay of the 'normal' SKU for GTA IV
by two or three weeks could allow Take-Two to maximize revenues from
the $89.99 Collector's Edition of the game by shipping that SKU on
October 17, and to increase overall profitability."
|